Tag Archives: Irish opinion poll

Gay Marriage Referendum Recommended For Ireland

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The ‘Convention on the Constitution’ Committee that is meeting to recommend changes to the Irish Constitution has voted in favour of legalizing Gay Marriage in Ireland.



The Committee is comprised of 66 members of the Irish public, who were chosen by random, with 33 politicians from the various political parties and a chairman making up the 100 strong group. The Committee voted by a margin of 79 to 19 in favour of recommending the Constitution be changed to allow Gay Marriage. The Government is now obliged to have a Parliamentary debate on the subject within four months and to then set out a timescale for a Referendum.

The timing of this decision will certainly cause problems for Fine Gael. The main Party in Government is regarded as being more conservative than their rivals Fianna Fail and certainly more conservative than the left-wing Labour Party who are in Government coalition with Fine Gael. They are now faced with being perceived as the Party that quickly brought both the abortion issue and the Gay Marriage issue to the Irish public, many of whom would prefer to just leave these issues alone.

The decision to legislate for the X-Case on foot of the tragic death of Savita Halapanavar has put the abortion issue front and centre. Not all Fine Gael T.D’s (members of parliament) are at all happy with the proposed abortion legislation with many set to oppose the provision allowing for abortion in Ireland where there is a risk of suicide by the person seeking the abortion. Many Fine Gael T.D’s are concerned that this will amount to ‘abortion on demand’ and are not assuaged by the assurances that any such provision would be strictly policed.

By also putting the question of Gay Marriage to the Irish people there is a fear within Fine Gael that the Party may be seen to be acting too radically or liberally, and too quickly. Of course asking the question about Gay Marriage of the Irish citizenry does not automatically mean the Referendum will be passed. The Irish public has in the past demonstrated itself to be liberal in the opinion polls and conservative at the ballot box.

An example of his occurred in the 1995 Referendum to allow Divorce in Ireland. The measure was enacted by a margin of 50.28% to 49.73%, and this despite the fact that it looked as if the measure would easily pass in the opinion polls prior to the actual vote. A previous Referendum on the same subject in 1986 was rejected by the Irish people by 63% to 37%, thus preventing the introduction of divorce in the country and again when opinion polls indicated that the Referendum would be easily passed. (note 1)

Consequently those who are in favour of Gay Marriage in Ireland will certainly not be taking the result of any future Referendum for granted.

The Local and European elections that are due to be held in 2014 also complicate the matter for Fine Gael. They will certainly not want these mid-term elections to become a de-facto vote on their decision to hold a Referendum on Gay Marriage. They have enough to be concerned about with Fianna Fail surging in the opinion polls and their austerity policies attracting ever-increasing criticism.



The battle-lines are being drawn up already with the Labour Party delighted to have a policy that they can promote as one of their own. Party Leader Eamon Gilmore:

I believe myself that same-sex couples have the right to marry, I’m glad the Constitutional Convention has recommended that

It is possible that Fine Gael may delay any actual Referendum until the next term of Government, making it a General Election issue or they could reject the recommendation altogether which, for a somewhat conservative Party would be quite a radical move.

note 1: http://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1277&context=djcil

by Michael Green
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Further Fianna Fail Poll Surge Is The Low-Mark Of Irish Despondency

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The ruling Fianna Fail Party was trounced in the 2011 election. At 17% of the vote they seemed to be on the very edge of oblivion. Fine Gael and Labour had brushed them aside, bolted into power on a wave of optimism about ‘real change’ and ‘burning the bond-holders’ (a reference to not paying back bank loans to unsecured bond-holders in Europe).

For a while it seemed that there might actually be some a change in direction. But alas it is now clear that the current Government has merely assimilated the trappings of power worn with such gusto by Fianna Fail, and in fact is implementing much of the previous Government’s policies.

It is difficult now to see any real difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael from a policy standing. The historical civil-war divide between the two parties is now all but irrelevant. Fine Gael have made very few changes to the deal struck with the EU/IMF/ECB troika who are lending Ireland huge sums of money in order to pay back German and French banks (and at a nice interest rate). Even the renegotiation of the Irish Promissory Note Deal is but a scratch on the surface of the mountain of debt facing the country. Heralded as a triumph it actually increases the amount of debt Ireland owes!

The Irish electorate is facing a scenario where there are two big Parties occupying the moderate central section of the Irish political landscape (Fine Gael, Fianna Fail) while the Labour Party vainly attempts to brand itself as the party of the left wing, a space now dominated by Sinn Fein and the Socialist Party. Rumours abound that the vacancy for a more right-of-centre Party may about to be filled with the establishment of a new ‘Progressive Democrats’ style of Party, but it has not happened yet.

The most recent opinion poll shows that Fianna Fail are now the best supported Party in the country at 27% compared to Fine Gael on 25%, 20% for Sinn Fein and Labour at 13%.

How could this happen?

How could the Party that was in Government while the Irish economy imploded be a mere two years later regarded as the best bet to lead Ireland to recovery?

Perhaps it is a sign that the current Government has failed or that the prospect of Sinn Fein in power is just too much for some people. Perhaps it is the disgust with the Labour Party being expressed so openly now by even some of its own membership. Perhaps it is the now five years of austerity and hardship that has been imposed on a relatively docile Irish citizenry by its masters in Government.

Perhaps it is a combination of all of the above – or is it that such are the depths of Irish despondency and cynicism with the Irish body politic that people will now vote for anyone just to get some real change.

Anyone.

Even Fianna Fail.

by Michael Green
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Opinion Polls Confirm Labour Party Slide and Fianna Fail Gain

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Two separate opinion polls have confirmed the recent rise in support for Fianna Fail and the continuing decline in the popularity of the Labour Party.

The left-wing Labour Party has been widely criticized by both its rank and file membership and by some of its own Parliamentary members for its conduct while in Government. The primary purpose of the Labour Party was to protect the most vulnerable and poorest sections of Irish society. Their association with the policies of the ruling Fine Gael Party is making a lie of that philosophy.

Already they have signed up to budget cuts and tax increases including the new Property Tax that the Party claims it had no choice but to agree to. Their difficulties are reflected in two recent polls that show the Party now trailing Sinn Fein in several key Dublin constituencies. The results of the two polls are shown below:

Labour Party 11% and 11% (19% in 2011 General Election)
Fianna Fail 24% and 21% (17% in 2011)
Fine Gael 26% and 28% (36% in 2011)
Sinn Fein 13% and 19% (10% in 2011)

The trend is very clear with Labour in decline, Fianna Fail improving, Sinn Fein improving but volatile and a big increase in the ‘worry factor’ for Fine Gael.

by Michael Green
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Irish Constitution to be Changed in Radical Shake-Up

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A ‘Convention on the Constitution’ Committee is meeting to make several recommendations to the Government so that the Irish Constitution can be changed.



The Committee is made up of 66 members of the Irish public, chosen by random, with 33 politicians from various political parties and a chairman making up the 100 strong group. The first order of business they faced was whether to leave the voting age at 18 years or to lower it to 17 or 16 years. They may also vote on reducing the term of the Presidential office from 7 years to 5 years. As many as 8 constitutional amendments will be considered by the Convention including:

  • A review of the Dail Eireann (Irish Parliament) voting system
  • Giving Irish residents outside of Ireland the right to vote in Presidential elections
  • An amendment relating to same-sex marriage
  • An amendment regarding the role of women in the home
  • An amendment increasing the participation of women in politics
  • An amendment to remove the offence of blasphemy from the Constitution

Any actual changes to the Irish Constitution must be approved in a national referendum.

The work of the group represents a unique opportunity for the citizens of Ireland to have a real say in the most important of Irish legal documents. Unionist parties in Ulster were invited by Taoiseach Enda Kenny to participate in the work but declined. Sinn Fein and several other Ulster parties are represented however.

Recent opinion polls suggest that the Irish people are in favour of the abolition of the Seanad (lower house of Parliament), legalising same-sex marriage, and allowing Irish citizens abroad the right to vote in Presidential elections.

by Michael Green
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Increase in Support for Fianna Fail as Government Parties Suffer

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A recent opinion poll of Irish voters has shown a further increase in support for Fianna Fail. The party that has been blamed for the current economic downturn was pummeled in the last General Election but is now beginning to show signs of recovery.

Perhaps part of the reason for Fianna Fail’s rebound is the failure of Fine Gael to introduce a ‘new kind of politics’ as they promised. At the last General Election Enda Kenny’s party asked Fianna Fail supporters to ‘lend us your vote’ while they got the country back on track. Many voters did and it seems are now regretting their decision.

The poll showed Fine Gael at 29%, down 7% since the 2011 election. Fianna Fail are next at 21%, up 4% since election day. The vote for Sinn Fein is very volatile and they are currently at 16%, up by 6% from the last election. The biggest loser is the Labour Party who look certain to be severely punished for their collusion in introducing austerity budgets and a national property tax. They are currently on 13%, down by 6% since the election.

Of course it is difficult to say just how much of the Fianna Fail support is just a protest at the current government. What remains a real possibility though is that the party could at least hope to return to government in the next election, especially given the difficulties faced by the Labour Party.

A year ago that seemed like a fanciful thought.

Huge Public Support in Ireland for Abortion Legislation in X-Case

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The X-case in Ireland refers to an Irish Supreme Court case that established that Irish women are entitled to an abortion if their life is in danger, including in danger from the risk of suicide. The 1992 ruling caused decades of controversy and although the decision was handed down by the Court successive Irish Governments have never provided legislation to specifically detail how the judgment may be used.

Abortion is illegal in Ireland unless the life of the mother is in peril. For the last two decades it has been left to medical staff to make individual judgements on a case-by-case basis. The recent death of Savita Halappanavar in a Galway hospital has brought this emotive issue to a head. Mrs. Halappanavar died after a complications due to a miscarriage and apparently after being refused an abortion to hasten that miscarriage. Her death prompted street rallies in Dublin and elsewhere.

A recent poll by the ‘Sunday Business Post’ newspaper has revealed that 85% of the Irish public now favours legislation in this area, allowing abortion where the mother’s life is in danger, including the risk of suicide. Some campaigners may hail this as a first step on the road to greater access to abortion in Ireland, while those opposed to abortion will likely attempt to block the legislation.

The issue will certainly cause real problems for the Irish Government that currently consists of two parties: Fine Gael and Labour. Several Fine Gael T.D.s (members of the Irish parliament) are much more conservative than their Labour Party colleagues and given the emotion attached to this issue it could potentially cause a real rift in the Government.

Ireland is Twelfth Best Country to be Born in During 2013

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A survey released by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has revealed the best countries in the world to be born in during 2013.

The results mirror a recent OECD ‘Better Life Index’ which listed Ireland as the fifteenth happiest country in which to live. That survey placed Ireland behind Denmark, Norway, Switzerland, The Netherlands, Austria, Finland, Australia, Canada and Sweden while the US placed twelfth and the UK fourteenth.

It is no great surprise that the Scandinavian countries once again dominate the EIU list but it is Switzerland that tops the list on this occasion. Canada and Australia also placed highly in both surveys.

The EIU survey examined peoples attitudes to their lives, crime rates, employment rates and earnings as well as health and quality of family life. It has been noted that the top ten countries were for the most part smaller economies and were not part of any monetary union (such as the Eurozone).

The EIU best countries to be born in during 2013:
1 Switzerland
2 Australia
3 Norway
4 Sweden
5 Denmark
6 Singapore
7 New Zealand
8 Netherlands
9 Canada
10 Hong Kong
11 Finland
12 Ireland
16 USA

Further Crackdown on Welfare on the Way

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It is a sign of the economic times that social welfare is again being targeted by a broke Irish government. Years of austerity, cutbacks and tax hikes have not yet been enough to balance the books in Ireland so the next target is those people who have already lost their jobs.

The ‘Jobseekers Allowance’ is usually paid for 12 months after unemployment begins but it is likely this will be cut to 9 months after which time the allowance will become subject to a ‘means test’. Such an individual examination of a persons income is likely to result in the amount paid being reduced. There are also a percentage of people who would be more encouraged to seek out work rather than endure a means test and a likely welfare cut.

This so called ‘labour activation measure’ could affect as many as 40,000 people in Ireland and is certain to be greeted with hostility by sections of the Labour Party who are currently in coalition with Fine Gael. The measure is likely to be yet another wedge to be driven between the two government parties in what is becoming a regular occurrence. The chances of Labour actually leaving Government though are pretty remote. Their public support has plummeted in recent months if the opinion polls are to be believed and any short-term election would see the party severely punished.

More likely Labour will try to water-down or even prevent the new measures from being implemented. With other big issues such as the abortion legislation and the ‘Croke Park Agreement’ also on the horizon it looks like the differences between Fine Gael and Labour are once again about to be brought into stark relief. Much to the delight of the opposition parties.

Remarkable Reversal in Fortune is Possible for Fianna Fail

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The Fianna Fail party that governed while the Irish economy collapsed is showing signs of life. The party was pummeled in the last general election, winning only 20 seats in the Irish parliament (Dail Eireann), having previously held 71 seats. The big winners were Fine Gael and the Labour Party who won an extra 25 and 17 seats respectively, sweeping the two parties into a coalition government on the back of an unprecedented popular mandate. It looked like the end of the road for the once all-powerful Fianna Fail.

Since that February 2011 election Fianna Fail has struggled to establish the party as even the genuine force of opposition in the parliament, with Sinn Fein repeatedly grabbing the headlines while Fianna Fail licked its wounds. Both government parties rarely missed an opportunity to berate Fianna Fail for the economic mess the country was left in, constantly reminding the media and voters that the problems in the country were all caused by the previous government.

It is beginning to look as if that mantra may be wearing a bit thin.

Fine Gael and Labour were voted into office in the belief that they would change the way politics in Ireland is conducted. They promised sweeping economic and political reforms with ‘burn the bond-holders’ the motto of choice for the more militant of Labour supporters (a reference to the fact that Fianna Fail had pledged to repay mostly German and French bondholders in exchange for IMF/EU/ECB funding to keep the country running).

To a large extent the new government has not delivered. Some commentators are pondering just how much longer Fine Gael and Labour can continue to blame Fianna Fail for the rescue plan they implemented in the dying days of their tenure, while at the same time continuing to implement that same plan. Perhaps the government parties felt that there was such public discontent with Fianna Fail that it did not really matter that they were just carrying on the same policies. All that mattered was that they were not Fianna Fail.

A recent opinion poll should help to focus the mind of those currently in power. Fianna Fail are at 22%, Fine Gael at 30%, Labour at 12%, Sinn Fein at 14% and Independents at 19%. Fianna Fail have risen from 16% in recent months and continue to make ground against the Labour Party who look certain to be severely punished at the next general election. In recent years Sinn Fein have polled well prior to the actual ballot but never quite made the major breakthrough when the votes were counted. If that trend were to continue then the possibility of Fianna Fail being back in government within the next two general elections would be a real possibility – an amazing turnaround by any standard.

It is up to the current government and Fine Gael in particular to deliver on their election promises. Blaming Fianna Fail does not seem to be enough for an impatient and suffering Irish public.